Prediction Markets, Explained
Everything you need to understand how prediction markets work — from contract pricing and probability mechanics, to on-chain resolution and how Predict compares to the competition.
Prediction markets let anyone trade on the outcome of real-world events: elections, sports finals, crypto price movements, economic indicators. Unlike traditional betting, prices in these markets function as crowd-sourced probabilities: the collective judgement of thousands of traders, each putting real money behind their convictions.
On Predict, those positions also earn yield while they're open, meaning your capital keeps working regardless of how a market resolves. The guides below cover the mechanics, the infrastructure, and how Predict compares to the alternatives.
BASICS
What Is a Prediction Market?
Understand how YES/NO contracts work, what price movements actually mean, and why market prices reflect real-time probabilities.
BASICS
What Is a Multi-Outcome Market?
How markets with many possible answers work — why outcome prices sum to $1, and the strategies they unlock that binary markets can’t express.
GUIDE
How UMA's Optimistic Oracle Powers Prediction Market Resolutions
A deep dive into the oracle infrastructure that settles prediction market outcomes — automatically, on-chain, without any central authority.
COMPARISON
Predict vs Polymarket
Yield on open positions, BNB Chain, smoother onboarding — here's how Predict stacks up against the biggest prediction market in the world.
COMPARISON
Predict vs Kalshi
Dollars and in-house clearing vs on-chain settlement and yield on open positions — how Predict compares to the largest prediction market by volume.
COMPARISON
Kalshi vs Polymarket
Centralized dollars vs on-chain stablecoins — how the industry’s two giants differ on fees, resolution, and coverage, and the one thing neither offers.
BASICS
What Are Bond Markets?
Near-certain-outcome markets where NO shares trade at $0.98–$0.99 — how the 1–2% return works, and why it isn’t risk-free.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
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