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Economy

Fed Decision in October?

Yield

25 bps increase

13%

50+ bps decrease

1%

No change

86%

25 bps decrease

1%

50+ bps increase

1%

$2M Vol

Oct 28 @ 11:59PM

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Yield

0 (0 bps)

97%

1 (25 bps)

2%

2 (50 bps)

1%

3 (75 bps)

1%

4 (100 bps)

1%

5 (125 bps)

1%

6 (150 bps)

1%

7 (175 bps)

1%

8 (200 bps)

1%

9 (225 bps)

1%

10 (250 bps)

1%

11 (275 bps)

1%

12+ (300+ bps)

1%

$22.2M Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 5:00AM

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Yield

↑ 5.5%

5%

↑ 5.25%

3%

↑ 5.0%

3%

↑ 4.75%

6%

↑ 4.5%

18.4%

↑ 4.25%

76.5%

↓ 3.25%

3%

↓ 3.0%

5%

↓ 2.75%

3%

↓ 2.5%

3%

↓ 2.25%

4%

↓ 2.0%

12.1%

↓ 1.75%

5%

↓ 1.5%

44.6%

↓ 1.25%

4%

↓ 1.0%

3%

↓ 0.75%

12%

↓ 0.5%

3%

↓ 0.25%

6%

↓ 0%

3%

$662K Vol

Dec 31 @ 12:00AM

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Yield

Hike-Pause-Hike

—%

Hike-Pause-Pause

—%

Hike-Hike-Hike

—%

Hike-Hike-Pause

—%

Pause-Pause-Hike

—%

Pause-Pause-Pause

9%

Pause-Hike-Hike

—%

Pause-Hike-Pause

54%

Other

—%

$162 Vol

Jan 27, 2027 @ 11:59PM

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

Yield

50+ bps decrease

1%

25 bps decrease

1%

No change

98%

25 bps increase

4%

50+ bps increase

1%

$5,483 Vol

Oct 29 @ 11:59PM

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

Yield

<-2.4%

5.3%

-2.4%– -1.6%

5%

-1.6%– -0.8%

9%

-0.8%–0.0%

20%

0.0%–0.8%

24.5%

0.8%–1.6%

20%

1.6%–2.4%

11%

2.4%–3.2%

9%

3.2%–4.0%

5%

4.0%+

5%

$9,873 Vol

Nov 16 @ 12:00AM

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Yield

Hike–Pause–Hike

70%

Hike–Pause–Pause

20%

Hike–Hike–Hike

9%

Hike–Hike–Pause

6%

Other

3%

$9,945 Vol

Dec 9 @ 11:59PM

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Yield

1 (25 bps)

21%

2 (50 bps)

70%

3 (75 bps)

12%

4 (100 bps)

1%

5+ (125+ bps)

3%

$18,007 Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 4:59AM

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

Yield

December 31, 2026

3%

June 30, 2027

9%

$153K Vol

Jun 30, 2027 @ 11:59PM

Fed Decision in January?

Yield

50+ bps decrease

3%

25 bps decrease

4%

No change

65%

25 bps increase

32%

50+ bps increase

0.1%

$12,966 Vol

Jan 27, 2027 @ 11:59PM

Fed Decision in December?

Yield

50+ bps decrease

3%

25 bps decrease

5%

No change

21%

25 bps increase

78%

50+ bps increase

5.8%

$8,688 Vol

Dec 9 @ 11:59PM

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Yield

7%

93%

$64,549 Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 5:00AM

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Yield

3.9%

3%

3.8%

2%

3.7%

4%

3.6%

4%

3.5%

3%

3.0%

4%

2.0%

4%

1.0%

4%

$99,484 Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 12:00AM

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yield

79%

21%

$1,406 Vol

Dec 9 @ 12:00AM

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Yield

5.5%

98.7%

5.7%

96.6%

6.0%

33.8%

+10

$2,236 Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 12:00AM