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Economy

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Yield

0 (0 bps)

86%

1 (25 bps)

9%

2 (50 bps)

4%

3 (75 bps)

1%

4 (100 bps)

1%

5 (125 bps)

1%

6 (150 bps)

1%

7 (175 bps)

1%

8 (200 bps)

1%

9 (225 bps)

1%

10 (250 bps)

1%

11 (275 bps)

1%

12+ (300+ bps)

1%

$15.3M Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 5:00AM

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Yield

↑ 5.5%

5%

↑ 5.25%

9.8%

↑ 5.0%

10.9%

↑ 4.75%

8%

↑ 4.5%

99.6%

↑ 4.25%

24%

↓ 3.25%

13%

↓ 3.0%

4%

↓ 2.75%

4%

↓ 2.5%

3%

↓ 2.25%

4%

↓ 2.0%

12.1%

↓ 1.75%

5%

↓ 1.5%

44.9%

↓ 1.25%

7%

↓ 1.0%

3%

↓ 0.75%

15.9%

↓ 0.5%

7%

↓ 0.25%

6%

↓ 0%

3%

$635K Vol

Dec 31 @ 12:00AM

Fed Decision in October?

Yield

25 bps increase

25%

50+ bps decrease

2%

No change

69%

25 bps decrease

4%

50+ bps increase

1%

$234K Vol

Oct 28 @ 11:59PM

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yield

63%

37%

$6.2M Vol

Dec 9 @ 12:00AM

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

Yield

<-2.4%

4%

-2.4%– -1.6%

—%

-1.6%– -0.8%

13%

-0.8%–0.0%

67%

0.0%–0.8%

24%

0.8%–1.6%

13%

1.6%–2.4%

5%

2.4%–3.2%

4%

3.2%–4.0%

5%

4.0%+

4%

$108 Vol

Nov 16 @ 12:00AM

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Yield

0 (0 bps)

44%

1 (25 bps)

46%

2 (50 bps)

18%

3 (75 bps)

4%

4 (100 bps)

5%

5+ (125+ bps)

5%

$953 Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 4:59AM

2nd Largest Company end of August?

Yield

Tesla

99.5%

Apple

99%

Alphabet

2.1%

Broadcom

2%

Amazon

2%

Saudi Aramco

2%

Microsoft

2%

NVIDIA

2%

$7,779 Vol

Aug 31 @ 11:59PM

Largest Company end of August?

Yield

NVIDIA

96%

Saudi Aramco

49.9%

Broadcom

2%

Amazon

2%

Tesla

2%

Alphabet

2%

Microsoft

2%

Apple

1%

$18,831 Vol

Aug 31 @ 11:59PM

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

Yield

December 31, 2026

4%

June 30, 2027

10%

$145K Vol

Jun 30, 2027 @ 11:59PM

Fed Decision in September?

Yield

50+ bps decrease

1%

25 bps decrease

2%

No change

53%

25 bps increase

44%

50+ bps increase

1%

$785K Vol

Sep 16 @ 12:00AM

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Yield

Pause–Pause–Pause

65%

Pause–Pause–Cut

2%

Other

49%

$1,915 Vol

Sep 17 @ 12:00AM

August Unemployment Rate

Yield

≤3.8%

3%

3.9%

5%

4.0%

14%

4.1%

36%

4.2%

31%

4.3%

10%

4.4%

5%

4.5%

4%

≥4.6%

4%

$0 Vol

Sep 4 @ 12:30PM

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

Yield

25 bps increase

89%

25 bps decrease

30%

No change

12%

50+ bps increase

3%

50+ bps decrease

2%

$2,695 Vol

Sep 18 @ 3:59PM

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Yield

Other

39.6%

Pause–Pause–Cut

6%

Pause–Cut–Cut

3%

Pause–Cut–Pause

1%

Pause–Pause–Pause

0.3%

$203 Vol

Oct 28 @ 11:59PM

Bank of England decision in September?

Yield

No change

98%

50+ bps decrease

2%

25 bps increase

4%

25 bps decrease

1%

50+ bps increase

2%

$2,144 Vol

Sep 17 @ 11:59PM

3rd Largest Company end of August?

Yield

Alphabet

96%

Apple

7.1%

Broadcom

2%

Amazon

2%

Tesla

2%

Microsoft

2%

NVIDIA

2%

Saudi Aramco

1%

$3,509 Vol

Aug 31 @ 11:59PM